The greatest risks in the coming year all stem from overseas, with potential chain reactions that could be triggered by the U.S. stock market, the dollar, and U.S. Treasury bonds.

Don't be swayed by recent news about Britain's bankruptcy; that's still a long way off. It's all part of partisan strife, where attacking opponents has become so fierce that they're willing to sacrifice the empire's dignity. If Churchill and Thatcher were aware, they might not even be able to keep their graves closed.

However, in contrast, there's another significant piece of news that's more concerning: as of July 30th, the U.S. national debt has surpassed $35 trillion. This news hides a much larger risk.

I believe that subjectively, the U.S. certainly does not want to see its stock market fall, but when it comes to the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, that's not necessarily the case. Especially after Trump took office, there's a very real possibility of a sharp devaluation of the dollar, or even defaulting on U.S. Treasury bonds.

How was this conclusion drawn? The logical thread consists of five steps, with a plethora of detailed data, to help us understand the impending crisis with the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds.

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The first piece of information is that more than 85% of the current $35 trillion U.S. debt has been accumulated in the last 20 years since the 21st century.

Let's take a trip down memory lane.

From my earliest recollections, the first U.S. president I remember is Clinton. Historical assessments describe Clinton as a very powerful president who brought the United States to its peak. How can we describe this peak?

Before Clinton, there were 41 presidents in 217 years, and the U.S. had accumulated a total of $4.1 trillion in national debt. At that time, the U.S. GDP was $6.7 trillion, and the overall government debt ratio was approximately 62.5%.At that time, the United States' annual federal revenue could reach just over one trillion dollars, covering a national debt of just over four trillion dollars with an annual fiscal revenue of more than one trillion. This repayment ability was very relaxed, and no one would doubt the financial strength of the United States.

At that time, the per capita disposable income of Americans could reach $18,000 per year, and all Americans accumulated $7.8 trillion in personal disposable income.

By the end of Clinton's eight years, the U.S. national debt had reached $5.7 trillion, an increase of 39%. It sounds like a lot, but the U.S. GDP grew from $6.7 trillion to $10.4 trillion, an increase of 55%, and fiscal revenue almost doubled, reaching just over $2 trillion, with an increase close to 100%.

In other words, the debt increased, but assets and income increased even more. It's like borrowing money to buy a house, and then the house price and income are soaring, and the happiness index is naturally very high.

The U.S. Treasury covered a national debt of more than five trillion with an income of $2 trillion, and no one would doubt the United States' repayment ability.

During that period, the per capita disposable income in the United States exceeded $25,000, and all Americans accumulated more than $10 trillion in wealth. It was the first national strength on the blue planet, coupled with a rich and strong people's life. The famous American TV series "Friends" was born in that era.

We can see that at that time, Americans were a group of people who went to their friends' homes to eat and drink casually, and no one cared how much the meal cost. After resigning, they could find a job quickly, and any job could support themselves very well, and life was rich and relaxed.

That period was also my childhood and adolescence. I can still remember when I was a child, I only had one pair of shoes and a coat in winter, and I had to wear them continuously for several months; I could eat meat regularly, but I still didn't dare to eat it with an open stomach, let alone imagine how happy it would be to have a buffet meal.

Many years later, when I look back and speculate on our previous generation, if they first set foot on American soil in the 1990s, they would be shocked by their prosperity. If they tried their best to stay there and make money by washing dishes, this life choice seems to be understandable.

After Clinton left office, it was George W. Bush's eight years. The U.S. debt soared from $5.7 trillion to $10.7 trillion, almost doubling, while GDP only rose from $10.4 trillion to $14.7 trillion.This feeling is akin to borrowing money to buy a car, which depreciates as soon as it hits the ground, with the increase in total assets far less than the liabilities. The government's debt ratio has risen from 54% to 73%, and the fiscal revenue has only increased from 2 trillion to 2.5 trillion.

Considering that the fiscal revenue of 2.5 trillion is meant to cover a debt of 10.7 trillion, we can't help but want to pat the old American on the shoulder and say, "If you really can't make it, try tightening your belt a bit."

At this point, Americans should also be feeling discontented. It is rumored that George W. Bush is the president with the lowest IQ in history, so they immediately elected a high-IQ Harvard graduate, Obama.

During Obama's eight years, the U.S. debt soared from 10.7 trillion to 20 trillion, nearly doubling. The GDP increased from 14.7 trillion to 19 trillion, and the debt ratio rose from 73% to 104%, showing that even a president with high intelligence can spend money quite aggressively.

The fiscal revenue was 3.2 trillion, and with an annual income of 3.2 trillion trying to cover a debt of 20 trillion, anxiety had already begun to set in. Compared to when Clinton left office 16 years ago, the U.S. debt has increased nearly fourfold, while the income of all Americans, at 14.3 trillion, has only increased by about 40% compared to 16 years ago.

After Obama, both Trump and Biden, in less than eight years combined, you see, in terms of spending speed, neither is superior to the other.

Currently, with half a year left until the end of their term, it is estimated that after leaving office, there will be another cycle where the debt nearly doubles every eight years.

After reviewing the past data, the first piece of information is that out of the current U.S. debt of 35 trillion, about 30 trillion, or 85%, has been generated after the 21st century.

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From this, the second piece of information derived is that habits are hard to change, so the U.S. debt will continue to rise rapidly.This conclusion can also be drawn by examining recent U.S. fiscal revenue and expenditure data. In the past three years, federal fiscal expenditures have been at a scale of 6 trillion dollars per year, far exceeding the fiscal revenue of 4 trillion dollars. If expenditures are not significantly reduced, then the U.S. will have to increase its debt by at least an additional 2 trillion dollars each year.

But can fiscal expenditures be reduced?

Taking the federal fiscal expenditures of 23 years as an example, we look at the federal fiscal balance sheet. Fiscal expenditures are divided into three parts: mandatory expenditures, discretionary expenditures, and net interest.

Mandatory expenditures are essentially planned rigid expenditures, including various income and protections for government employees who are currently working and retired. It is difficult to reduce this kind of money.

Mandatory expenditures plus interest expenditures have already basically exceeded fiscal revenue, let alone those parts that can be adjusted autonomously. Don't even mention that military expenses cannot be cut, even if they are all cut, there is no surplus to reduce debt.

Therefore, the second piece of information we get is that no matter who takes office later, the U.S. debt will continue to rise rapidly.

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The third piece of information is that no matter who takes office, they must start lowering interest rates immediately.

The mystery comes from the interest expenditure item in the federal fiscal balance sheet.By examining the annual interest expenditure over the past 30 years and dividing it by the average national debt balance for each year, we can infer the average interest rate for that year. The surge in U.S. debt is primarily a post-21st century phenomenon, or more specifically, after the Obama era. It can be observed that from 2009 to 2021, the average interest rate on U.S. national debt was very low, only in the single digits.

This was due to the policies of massive money printing and low interest rates adopted by the U.S. to stimulate the economy following the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. It was precisely because of these extremely low interest rates that the U.S. fiscal situation was not overwhelmed by interest payments, allowing the country to continue borrowing new money to repay old debts, sustaining a game where there are 10 pots but only 5 lids.

However, the interest rate hikes that began in 2022 have made this game more dangerous. We can see that the average interest rate in 2022 did not rise significantly because the existing debt could still be paid at low interest rates.

By 2023, the combination of new debt and the refinancing of maturing old debt, both borrowed at interest rates above 4%, directly increased the average interest rate by 33%.

In 2024, the increase will certainly be even greater. The amount paid in interest this year is highly likely to exceed a trillion dollars. With just the interest alone, the U.S. is already destined to be unable to repay it on its own. They will need to continue increasing the debt ceiling to pay the interest, and U.S. debt has effectively entered a Ponzi scheme model.

If interest rates are not lowered, everyone will soon see the U.S. debt exceed 40 trillion dollars, with annual interest expenses exceeding 2 trillion dollars, more than half of the over 4 trillion dollars in fiscal revenue. This will cause global panic, followed by a rapid financial deterioration, leading to the Argentinization of the dollar and U.S. debt.

Therefore, interest rates must be lowered, they absolutely must be lowered, to save face and delay the point at which global panic sets in, preventing the crisis from coming too suddenly.

The fourth piece of information is that the strong U.S. dollar over the past two years has been the result of aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes. Lowering interest rates will devalue the dollar and substantially reduce the exchange rate, a point that requires no further elaboration.Article 5: Why Do I Emphasize the Risks of Trump's Policies?

Trump's slogan is "Make America Great Again." How can America be revitalized? The method is to allow the United States to redevelop its manufacturing industry, bringing more job opportunities. The American people should buy more domestic products and import less to stimulate domestic manufacturing, thereby forming an economic internal circulation.

But how can this goal be achieved?

From the previous explanations, we should remember that more than 85% of the United States' debt was formed after the 21st century. The reason is very simple: China joined the WTO, and goods became particularly cheap. The United States found that it could directly print dollars to buy goods at low prices. Why bother producing them itself?

It is precisely the economic globalization that has led to the United States' debt-fueled consumption while also causing the hollowing out of its own industries. Therefore, during Trump's previous term, he vigorously engaged in a trade war with China.

However, as long as globalization continues, goods can still enter the United States through Mexico. Thus, the only possibility for Trump to achieve American manufacturing is to deglobalize and make the United States an offshore island.

But is globalization something that can be broken off at will?

The only way to achieve this is to significantly devalue the dollar, making it impossible to buy foreign goods. Naturally, Americans would then have to buy domestic products, which would also promote exports and stimulate American manufacturing.

Trump's second measure, which he repeatedly emphasized during his campaign, is to implement large-scale tax cuts for businesses to reduce the costs of manufacturing.But let's pay attention, taxes are fiscal revenue, and tax cuts are equivalent to reducing fiscal revenue. Looking back at the data of U.S. federal fiscal revenue, we can find that during the four years from 2017 to 2020 under the Trump administration, the U.S. debt soared by 7 trillion, but fiscal revenue hardly increased, which was the result of tax cuts in the previous term.

Conversely, Trump's opponent advocated for tax increases, so we see that from 2021 to 2023, fiscal revenue increased by more than 10% to 20% each year.

Now Trump has said that he wants to cut taxes even more aggressively. It can be inferred that if Trump takes office, federal revenue is likely to be only 3 trillion, but it will have to pay tens of billions of interest every year, and the finances will actually go bankrupt.

Conversely, if the opponent takes office, fiscal revenue is likely to be more than 5 trillion, covering the annual interest of trillions, which can delay the timing of the U.S. bankruptcy.

This is why we emphasize that after Trump takes office, the risks of exchange rates and U.S. debt will become more intense.

But the question arises, can everyone guess, does Trump not understand the danger of U.S. fiscal bankruptcy? How could he not understand? Everything is a consideration of interests.

We have spent a lot of time introducing that more than 85% of U.S. debt was generated in the past 20 years, at the same time, it was the past 20 years of trade globalization.

The key point of the U.S. two-party struggle is whether to support or oppose trade globalization.

The Democratic Party supports globalization and supports strategic expansion, wanting to extend the United States' reach to the Middle East, Europe, and Asia, Africa, and Latin America, then continue to carefully maintain the U.S. debt from collapsing, which can continue to rely on borrowing to consume, and continue to enjoy the day. Continue to maintain a strong dollar, you can rely on printing money to support various overseas military expenses and purchases, maintaining the dollar and U.S. debt from collapsing, which is in line with their interests.

And the Republican Party opposes globalization, when the United States strategically retracts into an isolated island, what does the exchange rate mean to them?It has become increasingly difficult for Americans to make a significant shift towards earning and spending their own money, and is it even feasible to expect them to repay past debts with their own hands? Since they have no intention of continuing to import in the future, does it still make sense to bear the burden of maintaining the US dollar and US debt? Wouldn't it be more beneficial to simply write off the debts?

Of course, when I say "write off," I am using strong language, as a substantial amount of US debt is also held within the American banking system and Americans' pension funds.

But what about foreign investors, especially those overseas bondholders who are displeased? At the G7 meeting in June this year, they have already played a round of confiscating the interest on Russian assets; what's so difficult about confiscating the assets themselves?

In conclusion, although Trump's rise to power would bring significant risks, I really hope that Trump will bring changes to this world. I truly wish Trump could make it to the top.