Fed's Big Move: Rate Cut Looms, S&P 500, Dow Hit New Highs
- 2024-04-29
- News
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On Wednesday, October 9th, local time, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher collectively. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose by 1.03%, the NASDAQ Composite increased by 0.60%, and the S&P 500 index gained 0.71%.
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that the vast majority of members supported a 50 basis point cut in interest rates.
Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index down by 1.29%.
The S&P 500 and DJIA hit new highs again.
On Wednesday, October 9th, local time, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher collectively. As of the close, the DJIA rose by 431.63 points, a 1.03% increase, to 42,512.00 points; the NASDAQ Composite gained 108.70 points, a 0.60% increase, to 18,291.62 points; the S&P 500 index added 40.91 points, a 0.71% increase, to 5,792.04 points. Among them, both the DJIA and the S&P 500 index closed at historical highs.
On the eve of the release of the U.S. September CPI, the S&P 500 index rose close to the 5,800 point threshold, with both the S&P 500 index and the DJIA setting historical closing highs. Technology stocks led the gains again, with Apple rising by 1.67%. NVIDIA ended its five-day winning streak. Tesla edged lower ahead of the Robotaxi announcement. Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index down by 1.29%.
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In terms of news, the Federal Reserve released the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from September 17th to September 18th on Wednesday. The minutes showed that the vast majority of attendees supported the Federal Reserve's September decision to cut the federal funds rate target range by 50 basis points, bringing its benchmark fund rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
The minutes indicated that several attendees pointed out that a 25 basis point rate cut would be in line with a gradual normalization path; almost all attendees agreed that the risks of inflation going higher have diminished; most attendees expressed that there has been an increase in the risks of a downturn in the job market; a few attendees stated that reducing policy constraints too early or too much could lead to a halt or reversal in the disinflation process; the balance sheet reduction is likely to continue for some time.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson stated that the underlying trend is that the inflation rate is declining towards the 2% target; the cooling of the U.S. job market is "orderly"; the risks to the Federal Reserve's two major mission tasks are roughly balanced. Decisions will be made based on the circumstances of each meeting; he is satisfied with the improvement in the adequacy of the discount window loan.
Citadel Securities stated that a strong U.S. economy and stubborn inflation will push the Federal Reserve to cut rates only once more for the rest of the year. "I dare say that there will only be a 25 basis point rate cut for the rest of the year," said Citadel Securities' Global Head of Interest Rate Trading, Michelle de Pascual, in an interview, "The market implies that there will still be a 50 basis point rate cut this year. We feel a bit too high, whether it's from the perspective of basic economic strength or the stickiness of inflation."Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the U.S. CPI data for September on Friday. According to a survey conducted by 22VResearch, 42% of investors anticipate a "mixed/insignificant" market reaction to the CPI, 32% of investors indicate a "risk-averse" stance, and only 25% of investors consider a "risk-on" approach. Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22VResearch, stated, "Overall, there is an optimistic view on inflation." He also noted that the proportion of investors expecting a recession has declined, while the proportion of investors who believe financial conditions need to tighten has reached the highest level since June.
In other market news, international oil prices fell. As of the close of the day, the futures price of light crude oil for November delivery at the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 33 cents, closing at $73.24 per barrel, a decrease of 0.45%; the futures price of Brent crude oil for December delivery fell by 60 cents, closing at $76.58 per barrel, a decrease of 0.78%.
The U.S. Dollar Index rose, with the index measuring the dollar against six major currencies increasing by 0.37% for the day, closing at 102.926 in the foreign exchange market. As of the close of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.0937 U.S. dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.0972 U.S. dollars; 1 British pound was exchanged for 1.3065 U.S. dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.3092 U.S. dollars.
Tesla's Robotaxi is said to feature gull-wing doors. In terms of sectors, nine out of the eleven major sectors of the S&P 500 Index rose while two fell. Among them, the healthcare and information technology sectors led the gains with increases of 1.02% and 1.01%, respectively. The utilities sector led the declines with a drop of 0.88%.
Most popular tech stocks rose. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose by more than 4%, Arm Holdings rose by more than 3%, Broadcom, ASML, Qualcomm, and Oracle all rose by more than 2%, Apple, Cisco, Texas Instruments, and Amazon rose by more than 1%, Netflix, Eli Lilly, Microsoft, Intel, and TSMC saw minor increases, Nvidia, Meta, and Micron Technology saw minor declines, and Advanced Micro Devices, Tesla, and Alphabet Inc. Class A fell by more than 1%.
Tesla fell by 1.41%. According to an exclusive report by Bloomberg on Wednesday, Tesla's Robotaxi will feature two front seats and gull-wing doors. Informed sources revealed that Elon Musk is expected to announce more details about this electric autonomous taxi at the press conference on Thursday and discuss the possibility of applying Full Self-Driving (FSD) software to the Semi heavy-duty truck. However, the specific launch time for the Robotaxi remains uncertain and is temporarily referred to as the "Cybercab." Industry insiders and investors anticipate that Tesla will disclose the vehicle's production schedule and potential plans to attract users through ride-sharing applications in the future.
Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, stated that some investors are optimistic about Tesla's planned Robotaxi service release on October 10th, but the latest supply chain survey indicates that Tesla's Robotaxi is not expected to begin mass production until the first quarter of 2027. The form of the Robotaxi service may include driverless vehicles or utilize existing Tesla owners' cars, but the key lies in the company's FSD system meeting government requirements to operate driverless taxi services. Currently, Tesla is believed to have the hardware design and production capabilities needed for the Robotaxi, but the delay in mass production time may imply that the FSD system meeting government requirements will also be postponed to after 2026. In the long term, the trend of driverless taxis is worth looking forward to, but short-term stock price fluctuations may not rise as much as expected.
Meta fell by 0.40%. According to an announcement by Meta on Wednesday, its AI chatbot MetaAI will expand to 21 new regions, including the United Kingdom and Brazil. This AI-driven chatbot is currently able to interact with users on applications such as Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, providing recommendation services. Additionally, it can serve as a voice assistant for Meta's smart glasses and mixed reality devices. This expansion not only covers new countries but also supports more languages, including the upcoming Tagalog, as well as Arabic and Thai, which will be supported soon. Meta plans to eventually promote the AI bot to 43 countries and support 12 languages. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg stated last month that the monthly active users of MetaAI have approached 500 million people.
Nvidia fell by 0.18%. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated in a podcast hosted by Arm CEO Rene Haas on Wednesday that the future of artificial intelligence will depend on services capable of "reasoning," but to achieve this goal, computational costs must first be reduced. Huang pointed out that the next generation of AI tools will be able to respond to queries through hundreds or thousands of steps and reflect on their conclusions, thus possessing reasoning capabilities, which will distinguish them from current systems such as OpenAI's ChatGPT. To achieve this progress, Nvidia plans to increase the performance of its chips by 2 to 3 times annually while maintaining the same cost and energy consumption levels, thereby significantly reducing costs in the reasoning process. Currently, Nvidia holds over 90% of the AI accelerator chip market and is promoting the adoption of artificial intelligence technology by more enterprises through services such as hardware, software, and AI models.Additionally, Ian Simm, CEO of Impax Asset Management, a London-based asset management firm with a value of $50 billion, stated on Wednesday that the company seized the opportunity to increase its holdings in the chip giant Nvidia when its stock price plummeted earlier this year. Simm admitted to previously underestimating the market potential of Nvidia's products, missing out on an 800% surge since the beginning of 2023. Despite Nvidia's current market value exceeding $3.2 trillion, Simm believes its actual value is still underestimated, especially against the backdrop of an artificial intelligence boom that will continue to drive demand for chips.
TSMC rose by 0.59%. TSMC's September sales increased by 39% year-on-year, reaching $23.6 billion, exceeding market expectations. Analysts believe that this better-than-expected performance has strengthened investor confidence. Despite delays in shipments of Nvidia's latest Blackwell chips, TSMC continues to benefit from high demand from Nvidia, Apple, and other tech giants, particularly in the areas of AI servers and high-performance computing chips.
Amazon rose by 1.34%. Amazon has launched a new artificial intelligence tool aimed at addressing a major issue in its rapid delivery system: drivers searching through messy vans for packages at each stop. This technology, called "Visual Assisted Package Retrieval" (VAPR), will be deployed on 1,000 Amazon vans next year and is expected to shorten the typical delivery route by about 30 minutes.
Furthermore, Amazon's pharmacy business delivery range will expand to Boston, Dallas, and other areas in the United States. The scale of same-day delivery of prescription drugs will expand by 2025, achieving the goal of same-day delivery in nearly half of the regions in the United States.
Financial stocks generally rose. U.S. Bancorp, Goldman Sachs, Capital One Financial, Regions Financial, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, American International Group, JPMorgan Chase, and UBS Group rose by more than 1%. American Express, Mastercard, Visa, BlackRock, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Travelers Insurance, and Wells Fargo saw slight increases, while Mizuho Financial fell by more than 1%.
Energy stocks were mixed. Murphy Oil, Chevron, Duke Energy, Apache Corporation, Schlumberger, ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil, and ExxonMobil saw slight increases, while Shell, Imperial Oil, BP, and Occidental Petroleum saw slight declines, Petrobras fell by more than 1%, and U.S. Energy fell by 2%.
Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down by 1.29%. NetEase fell by more than 5%, Miniso fell by more than 4%, iQIYI and Full Truck Alliance fell by more than 3%, Weibo, Pinduoduo, and Tencent Music fell by more than 2%, Baidu, DouYu, Alibaba, JD.com, New Oriental, Huya, and Futu Holdings fell by more than 1%, Li Auto and Bilibili saw slight declines, VIPShop and NIO saw slight increases, and XPeng Motors rose by more than 3%.
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